--- title: "Lightning never strikes twice? It does, and on schedule" url: https://erroneo.us/daily/lightning-never-strikes-twice/ description: "Yes, often. The Empire State Building averages about 23 strikes a year, and about half of all flashes hit the ground in more than one spot." type: daily-entry section: "Myths" date_published: 2026-11-06 author: erroneo.us Editors date_modified: 2026-11-06 publisher: erroneo.us license: All rights reserved. Quote with attribution and a link. --- # Lightning never strikes twice? It does, and on schedule > The proverb is fine as a figure of speech. As physics it is backwards, and believing it can put you in exactly the wrong spot during a storm. *Error of the Day for November 6, 2026 · Myths · by erroneo.us Editors* - **Wrong:** That tree already got hit, so it's the safest place to stand now. - **Right:** Lightning often hits the same place again, especially tall, isolated objects. Get inside. - **Memory trick:** Lightning has no memory, but it does have favorites: tall, pointy and alone. ## What people get wrong "Lightning never strikes the same place twice" is usually said to reassure someone that a bad break won't repeat. As a figure of speech, it's harmless. As a statement about weather, it's wrong, and the National Weather Service lists it first among its [lightning myths](https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-myths): lightning "often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it's a tall, pointy, isolated object." The NWS's favorite example is the Empire State Building, which it says is hit an average of 23 times a year. Broadcast towers, skyscrapers and lone trees on hilltops collect strikes the same way. They're no unluckier than anything else. They're just better placed. ## Why it happens A cloud-to-ground flash doesn't simply fall out of the sky. According to NOAA's [National Severe Storms Laboratory](https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/lightning/faq/), the downward leader is met by a faint upward channel sent up from whatever is about to be struck, and taller objects are more likely to produce that upward channel. Whatever made a spot attractive the first time (height, shape, metal, wet ground) is usually still there for the next storm. The same FAQ adds a second reason: there is a lot of lightning. Over the contiguous 48 states, detection networks have counted an average of about 20 million cloud-to-ground flashes a year since 1989. About half of those flashes touch the ground at more than one point, so at least 30 million spots get hit every year. With numbers like that, some strikes will land on or near earlier ones by pure chance. So a single flash can hit two places, and a single place can be hit by many flashes. The proverb gets it wrong both ways. ## What about people? For any one person the odds are small. The NWS puts the chance of being struck in a given year at about [1 in 1,222,000](https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds), and over an 80-year lifetime at about 1 in 15,300, based on averages for 2009 to 2018. The NSSL notes that a lot depends on exposure. Someone who works outdoors in thunderstorm country is not playing the same odds as someone with a desk job. That's how a person ends up in the record books. [Guinness World Records](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-lightning-strikes-survived) lists former park ranger Roy C. Sullivan of Virginia as the only man known to have been struck by lightning seven times. Seven strikes would be absurd if the proverb were true. For a park ranger whose job kept him outdoors, it's a grim illustration of how exposure adds up. ## The fix Wrong: The pole already took a hit, so ~~lightning won't strike it again~~. Right: The pole already took a hit, so it's a proven target. Stay away from it. Why: Whatever drew the first strike is still there for the second. The dangerous version of the myth is the practical one: standing next to something that was just struck, or treating a scorched tree as cover. Height and isolation draw strikes, so a recent strike is evidence that a spot is attractive, not that it's used up. > The NSSL's advice is simple: if a thunderstorm is near, get to a good shelter such as an enclosed building. It also warns that the first and last flashes of a storm can be the most dangerous, because the first may come with no thunder beforehand and the last can arrive many minutes after the one before it. Keep the idiom if you like it. "Lightning never strikes twice" is still a reasonable way to tell a friend their bad week was a fluke. Just don't apply it to the actual sky. ## Sources 1. [National Weather Service: Lightning Myths](https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-myths) 2. [NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory: Lightning FAQ](https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/lightning/faq/) 3. [National Weather Service: How Dangerous is Lightning? (odds)](https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds) 4. [Guinness World Records: Most lightning strikes survived](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-lightning-strikes-survived) ## Go deeper - https://erroneo.us/myths/science-myths/ --- Source page: https://erroneo.us/daily/lightning-never-strikes-twice/ · More: https://erroneo.us/llms.txt